That little girl up there at the end of the line… that’s you.
That handsome looking gentleman in the front of the line… that’s the first ever NBA TopShot user (we’re calling him Roham — his wife is next to him, probably looking at his account value after she called him an idiot for paying for YouTube video clips). The perplexed man in the middle… well, that’s my oldest brother, Jon. I’m the happy fellow behind him with the cute girl attached to my arm (we’ll call her Kelly in case my girlfriend ever subscribes to this email list).
Roham is old enough to remember the good ol’ days when NBA TopShot packs were readily available whenever you wanted to spend $9 or more and rip one open (digitally, of course). Jon joined sometime in late 2020 or early 2021, when he bought a Ja Morant moment for $35,000. You can read about it here.
Don’t be fucking stupid.
I joined shortly after Jon, and now you’re hopping in line, wondering out loud, “Is this really worth it? Isn’t it too late to get into NBA TopShot?”
Standing right in front of you, I hear you pondering amongst yourself and turn around to offer a little advice: don’t be fucking stupid.
Every person in the image above represents about 10,000 TopShot users. That’s right, NBA TopShot has about 70,000 (perhaps slightly more once this finally hits your inbox) unique accounts right now, making you 7th in line for the money train.
Sure, the man up front can probably retire right now, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a TON of value remaining. The NBA’s Twitter account has over 32 million followers. Imagine if only 10 percent of those people decide to signup for NBA TopShot. That’s 3.2 million new users. Following our example, that’s 320 people in line behind you.
Right now, the guy in the front of the line looks so far away from you. But if you add another 320 people to image, can you really tell the difference between 1st and 7th? Not really.
Seriously, don’t be fucking stupid.
So, the question you’re actually asking is, “Is it too late to make a quick buck flipping NBA TopShot moments?” The answer is still: don’t be fucking stupid.
But this time, being stupid has two meanings. First, of course you can still make a quick buck on NBA TopShot. More importantly, you’re thinking about this investment all wrong.
Why would you want to buy your train ticket and sell it to the 8th, 9th, or 10th person in line? Let’s say there are only 3 “elite club” tickets, 7 “gold star” tickets, 20 “silver star” tickets,” and 100 “bronze star” tickets.
That means you have a gold star ticket, and you’re going to sell it to someone else who either has a gold star ticket or one of the first silver star tickets. But the person with the lousy bronze star ticket would pay you so much more money for it. Hold onto that ticket for awhile, idiot.
Okay, but which tickets should I buy?
Alright, let’s get down to the moment I know you’ve all been waiting for. What’re my top 5 moments to buy on the marketplace right now?
1. Kawhi Leonard ($198) - 3 Pointer | Base Set | Series 2
Earlier today, this moment was selling for about $122. It really skyrocketed, but for good reason. This is the shot that put Kawhi Leonard over 10,000 points.
There are levels to assessing value. Moments can be limited by their serial count (obviously), which is what makes series 1 moments so much more valuable than series 2 and beyond.
But they can also be limited by the event captured on camera. Kawhi is going to score again. He’s going to make more threes. He’s going dunk. He’s going to dish out assists and grab rebounds. But he’s never going to score his 10,000th point again. And you (and 14,999 other people) can exclusively own that moment.
2. Dwight Howard ($35) - Dunk | Base Set | Series 2
This moment is just too cheap. I bought a ton of these at $23 just a day ago. Buy it all the way up to about $60. This guy is a future Hall of Fame inductee. I don’t care how unimpressive he is right now.
3. Deandre Ayton ($40) - Dunk | Base Set | Series 2
Much like Dwight Howard, this moment is still too cheap. Deandre Ayton is having a bad start to the season, but he’s still averaging a double-double. And players like Donovan Mitchell are selling similar moment for about $100.
I bought a bunch of these at around $27 earlier today. And I don’t plan on selling them anytime soon.
4. Markelle Fultz ($574) Dunk | Early Adopters | Series 1
Markelle Fultz is dealing with an injury… again. But he was playing great prior to that injury, and I expect him to play great afterwards.
This moment is about more than just Fultz, though. The Early Adopters moments are going to be worth money simply because they were part of an exclusive private beta. They’re all limited edition under 2,000.
If you have the money, spend up on Karl-Anthony Towns. Fultz is just undervalued right now.
5. Kevin Garnett ($6000) - Dunk | Run It Back | Series 1
This exclusive Run It Back moment is Kevin Garnett’s first (and maybe ever) NBA TopShot moment. I wanted to buy it back when it was $2600 two days ago, but never pulled the trigger. I was being a fucking idiot. And our rule is: don’t be a fucking idiot.
The Run It Back moments will gain in popularity, as Shaq, Allen Iverson, and Tracy McGrady moments will soon(ish) be launched for the series 2 Run It Back.
Plus, Hall of Fame badges are possibly coming before we know it, making this moment much more valuable in the near future.
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